The “knowledge worker” now faces what manufacturing workers have faced for several decades. Their jobs are moving off shore to countries with lower labor costs. But, the signs of a pending "off-shoring" that results in a layoff aren’t as obvious as they were in the past.
Often, these employers are prosperous, but - feeling the pressure from stockholders to increase profits or from competitors with lower expense profiles - healthy companies announce massive layoffs as jobs are moved off shore to cheaper labor pools, like those in India and China.
“For the most part, it is operations, back-office, support functions, but we’re not providing any more detail than that,” said Robert Julavits, a Citigroup spokesman. On April 11, Citigroup announced a layoff of 17,000 employees and is moving 9,500 of those jobs to “lower-cost locations,” as reported by Sara Lebro in BankNet360.
Newly Vulnerable Jobs
According to Princeton economist and former Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Alan S. Blinder in the March 28, 2007, Wall Street Journal, off-shoring will pick up steam. Blinder sees the following jobs as “most vulnerable” – a surprising group of occupations:
| Occupation | No. of U.S.
Workers |
|---|
|
| Bookkeeping, accounting, and auditing clerks |
1,815,340 |
| Computer programmers |
389,090 |
| Data entry keyers |
296,700 |
| Financial analysts |
180,910 |
| Graphic designers |
178,530 |
| Medical transcriptionists |
90,380 |
| Interpreters and translators |
21,930 |
| Actuaries |
15,770 |
| Microbiologists |
15,250 |
| Film and video editors |
15,200 |
| Economists |
12,470 |
| Mathematicians |
2,930 |
Past - Signs that a Layoff Is Coming
In the past, we often had recognizable and predictable signals that a layoff was in the works for a particular employer. The employer was usually in serious financial trouble – large drop in annual sales and profits or increase in losses, management shuffles or departures, poor product sales, etc. See Job-Hunt’s Guide to Layoffs (Predict, Prepare, and Survive) for more tips.
These signs are still valid for most companies, including large manufacturing companies (the U.S. automobile industry, for example), but now jobs are vulnerable - in otherwise apparently healthy companies.
New Signs a Layoff Is Approaching
As we’ve seen, while the old signs are still good predictors, a lack of those signs is no guarantee of secure employment. If you are not physically touching a customer, your job may be at risk. So, wait staff, HVAC technicians, computer network technicians, nurses and other health care workers, and others who have direct contact with customers are probably secure because they are difficult to replace with technology. However, not all direct personal contact jobs are secure. With all the ATM machines out there, even bank teller jobs may not be needed in the future, and Websites may take the loan or mortgage application rather than your friendly local bank or credit union loan officer. This will be interesting, and undoubtedly painful, to watch unfold.
Bottom Line
Off-shoring manufacturing jobs seemed like an inevitable part of the growth of the world economy, as long as products essential for national defense were still produced here.
However, speaking as a former member of the Department of Defense who also worked for a major IT defense contractor, off-shoring jobs as important and sensitive as the development and management of the U.S. financial infrastructure does not seem like a very good long-term strategy. How truly secure is the resulting product/service? Who owns that intellectual property, developed at U.S. expense? How well is sensitive personal information about U.S. citizens and residents being protected? Are we selling out our “core competency” as a country by unlimited off-shoring of knowledge worker jobs? Kinda scary on a number of levels!
